At the last World Cup Nate Silver turned 100K into $571,538. It was an amazing run and we'll see what he can do with that bankroll soon enough. https://statsbomb.com/2014/07/germany-must-make-a-tough-decision-nate-silver-day-24/ He'll be starting off with Saudi Arabia:
Team
Wager
Risked
To Win
Result
Saudi Arabia
-0.5
7694
63555
0
I also calculated all of his futures, although I only gave him a 10k bankroll there (with unlimited credit). Eliminated means the team does not make it past the group stage. Teams are listed by group and then alphabetical. Best of luck to Nate on what I'm sure will be another memorable run.
Team
Future
Risked
To Win
Result
Egypt
Eliminated
725
439
0
Russia
Advance
1225
544
0
Russia
Win Group
1063
2285
0
Saudi Arabia
Advance
612
5200
0
Saudi Arabia
Win Group
130
4604
0
Uruguay
Eliminated
612
2600
0
Uruguay
Not Win Group
1993
2432
0
Iran
Advance
317
1900
0
Iran
Semifinalist
102
10264
0
Iran
Win Group
63
1800
0
Morocco
Advance
334
976
0
Morocco
Finalist
135
20200
0
Morocco
Quarterfinalist
472
4378
0
Morocco
Semifinalist
103
2455
0
Morocco
Win Group
81
1040
0
Portugal
Champion
182
4100
0
Portugal
Eliminated
933
2800
0
Portugal
Finalist
480
5876
0
Portugal
Not Win Group
60
24
0
Portugal
Quarterfinalist
414
534
0
Portugal
Semifinalist
739
3150
0
Spain
Champion
529
3410
0
Spain
Eliminated
187
1466
0
Spain
Finalist
525
1571
0
Spain
Quarterfinalist
633
284
0
Spain
Semifinalist
673
848
0
Spain
Win Group
55
35
0
Denmark
Champion
19
2350
0
Denmark
Quarterfinalist
686
3271
0
Denmark
Semifinalist
38
404
0
Denmark
Win Group
471
2285
0
France
Eliminated
444
4000
0
France
Not Champ
2320
270
0
France
Not Finalist
2000
500
0
France
Not Semifinalist
2498
1759
0
France
Not Win Group
910
1856
0
Peru
Advance
114
168
0
Peru
Quarterfinalist
379
3188
0
Peru
Semifinalist
71
1560
0
Peru
Win Group
358
2950
0
Argentina
Eliminated
679
3225
0
Argentina
Not Champ
130
10
0
Argentina
Not Semifinalist
442
174
0
Argentina
Not Win Group
1771
2480
0
Croatia
Champion
3
92
0
Croatia
Eliminated
44
80
0
Croatia
Finalist
50
717
0
Croatia
Quarterfinalist
184
360
0
Croatia
Win Group
402
976
0
Iceland
Advance
755
2499
0
Iceland
Finalist
1
100
0
Iceland
Quarterfinalist
273
3380
0
Iceland
Win Group
300
3850
0
Nigeria
Advance
200
500
0
Nigeria
Quarterfinalist
329
3794
0
Nigeria
Win Group
219
2520
0
Brazil
Eliminated
327
3772
0
Brazil
Not Semifinalist
432
400
0
Brazil
Not Win Group
822
2352
0
Costa Rica
Not Win Group
598
20
0
Serbia
Eliminated
160
114
0
Serbia
Finalist
4
200
0
Serbia
Win Group
225
2036
0
Switzerland
Advance
600
600
0
Switzerland
Champion
126
16700
0
Switzerland
Finalist
134
3465
0
Switzerland
Quarterfinalist
744
3685
0
Switzerland
Semifinalist
257
2716
0
Switzerland
Win Group
629
4875
0
Germany
Not Champ
640
103
0
Germany
Not Finalist
880
314
0
Germany
Not Semifinalist
1160
959
0
Germany
Not Win Group
691
1872
0
Korea Republic
Semifinalist
1
131
0
Mexico
Eliminated
570
543
0
Mexico
Win Group
105
696
0
Sweden
Advance
1296
1750
0
Sweden
Finalist
58
2300
0
Sweden
Quarterfinalist
469
3158
0
Sweden
Win Group
351
2600
0
Belgium
Eliminated
126
933
0
Belgium
Not Win Group
690
800
0
Belgium
Semifinalist
415
163
0
England
Champion
156
2656
0
England
Finalist
265
2012
0
England
Quarterfinalist
298
227
0
England
Semifinalist
322
989
0
England
Win Group
158
208
0
Panama
Advance
279
2660
0
Japan
Advance
2020
5050
0
Japan
Finalist
1
100
0
Japan
Quarterfinalist
746
9809
0
Japan
Semifinalist
157
6208
0
Japan
Win Group
820
6150
0
Poland
Eliminated
571
800
0
Poland
Not Win Group
1264
596
0
Senegal
Eliminated
2410
1854
0
Senegal
Not Win Group
900
150
0