Nate Silver Day 14: Never going to lose faith in Costa Rica

More than any other team, Los Ticos helped build Nate's bankroll. Nate has remained loyal to them, although it might prove to be fruitless this time around. Sweden is the big, potentially realistic, play of the day. Mexico were so close to qualifying, but now need to muster at least a draw to be assured of advancing. As for Serbia or South Korea, a draw would be an impressive result.

Nate dealt with some enormous swings yesterday, looking like he was going to finish at $614,505 at one point. Goals from Nigeria and Croatia put him in position to finish at $1,665,976. Then things swung back against him before a late Croatia goal led him to finish the day at $1,199,022. The swings are steep when you sail the full-Kelly seas.

Bankroll %

Team

Wager

Risked

To Win

Result

1.01%

Germany-South Korea

Draw

16888

115346

0

6.48%

Sweden

-0.5

107912

242802

0

2.83%

Costa Rica

-0.5

47111

299156

0

0.85%

Serbia-Brazil

Draw

14232

50239

0