Howdy! After a four-year break, I'm returning to Statsbomb to track some of the notable predictions from luminaries such as Opta, Goldman Sachs, and a player to be named later. Four years ago Goldman did... poorly: https://statsbomb.com/2014/06/goldman-sachs-and-the-world-cup/ They dropped 29.77% of their bankroll. Oops! This time around I've cut their bankroll to $10,000 (with an open credit line), because losing large sums of money should be punished. (I'll excuse the snorts of laughter from those of you who know how it really works). The methodology here is the Kelly Criterion. Quite simply, these are the bets you would make to maximize your bankroll growth if you believed the numbers you published. Our good friends at Goldman Sachs have returned with more futbol proclamations. Some notable points:
- It's unclear that they are aware of where the World Cup is taking place. I'm as shocked as they are that Russia will be hosting, but let's take that into account with our projections, eh? They have Saudi Arabia as more likely to advance then Russia despite Russia being more than a goal favorite head-to-head.
- Betting on Spain, Argentina, France, Brazil, and Germany to be eliminated in the Group stage suggests they don't quite have a handle on just how good the elite teams are.
- Betting on England to not get out of the group stage is just good sense.
- I'm personally rooting for Japan, so let's hope Goldman wins that one
Team
Advance Y/N
Risked
To Win
Result
Uruguay
Eliminated
809
3438
0
Russia
Eliminated
5092
10948
0
Egypt
Eliminated
1056
660
0
Saudi Arabia
Advance
2903
24676
0
Spain
Eliminated
1156
10543
0
Portugal
Pass
0
0
0
Morocco
Pass
0
0
0
Iran
Advance
2463
14778
0
France
Eliminated
956
8604
0
Denmark
Eliminated
278
320
0
Peru
Pass
0
0
0
Australia
Advance
3864
17388
0
Argentina
Eliminated
1151
5467
0
Croatia
Eliminated
3342
6016
0
Iceland
Advance
2918
9980
0
Nigeria
Eliminated
3109
1026
0
Brazil
Eliminated
490
5645
0
Switzerland
Pass
0
0
0
Serbia
Pass
0
0
0
Costa Rica
Advance
2153
8913
0
Germany
Eliminated
1044
9281
0
Mexico
Eliminated
297
288
0
Sweden
Advance
583
787
0
Korea Republic
Advance
223
997
0
Belgium
Eliminated
1091
8084
0
England
Eliminated
1380
7176
0
Tunisia
Advance
1799
8096
0
Panama
Advance
443
4386
0
Colombia
Advance
839
336
0
Poland
Advance
1621
977
0
Senegal
Eliminated
4154
3147
0
Japan
Advance
928
2320
0
As for their championship futures:
Team
Champ
Risked
To Win
Result
Portugal
Yes
558
13236
0
Belgium
Yes
35
410
0
England
Yes
238
4048
0
Colombia
Yes
171
8294
0
Poland
Yes
108
8646
0
Mexico
Yes
126
16695
0
Denmark
Yes
110
13475
0
Sweden
Yes
91
22767
0
Iran
Yes
61
32056
0
Peru
Yes
1
126
0
Australia
Yes
35
14011
0
Iceland
Yes
17
5143
0
Costa Rica
Yes
25
10063
0
Tunisia
Yes
36
26118
0
Saudi Arabia
Yes
26
18863
0
Japan
Yes
21
11036
0
Best of luck to our friendly Vampire Squid. (Header Photo Courtesy of the Press Association)